How to Plan for the Fiscal Future in 2024
By: Raj Tulshan, Loan Mantra
Over the past few years, small business owners have seen dramatic changes in the financial landscape, with an array of challenges and an uncertain future. Several years of global disruption have left small businesses on a rollercoaster ride, facing a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions and ongoing labor shortages. Recently, despite rising inflation and bank failures, small businesses experienced some good news, with cryptocurrency going mainstream, an increase in diverse small business owners, a rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the workplace and more. As we welcome 2024, let’s review a few highlights of 2023.
In 2023 small businesses reported becoming more optimistic, predicted a growth in revenue and planned to hire more staff in the coming year. They anticipated making higher investments in their companies moving forward. What’s more, we saw an increase in diversity among small business owners, and a rise in the number of small businesses across the country, which account for an impressive 99.9% of the businesses in the U.S.
While the economic outlook improved in 2023, there are no guarantees that 2024 will be the same. And, as the new year begins, many businesses remain hesitant about the road ahead. It’s human nature to want to predict the future – and in the business world, vital for owners to have a plan to move forward. The one constant is change. Financial service professionals can help business owners and leaders manage these economic and cultural shifts to stay adaptive and resilient during the coming year and for years to come. While no financial expert has a crystal ball, there are key factors that impact the fiscal future. Here are financial considerations for making business plans and strategies that will work today and tomorrow.
The Rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
AI and ML technologies are already being used in fraud detection and investment research in the Fintech industry. ChatGPT is a new tool that is generating interest in average consumers who have interacted with it out of curiosity. Chatbots are already augmenting customer-facing service roles, increasing speed and simplifying complex transactions. Personal finance, budgeting, operations and management apps are becoming integral for business owners who want to use business data to take control of revenue and meet financial goals. Adoption of these technologies and resulting changes present large business opportunities – and a quantum shift for the business over the long term.
Digital Payments and the Blockchain
As was seen during the pandemic, the shift to digital payments continues to accelerate. Further declines in cash usage will be seen with an upsurge in alternative payment methods, including cryptocurrencies. In 2023 we saw cryptocurrencies go mainstream as patrons used crypto to purchase goods and services, real estate and more. At the same time, governments worldwide are exploring cryptocurrency regulations. In 2024, expect to see clearer guidelines and potentially greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance. In addition, the standardization of one central currency may appear called the Central Bank Digital Currency or CBDC.
The CBDC has become a highly charged issue as adoption of it would be controlled by a central entity with likely ties to a social credit system for consumers. Consumer advocates warn that the use of this would put unfettered power and control in the hands of those controlling it. The World Economic Forum states that a CBDC would forever change the relationship between the public and their money with an end to private accounts and choice over what is purchased by individuals. The WEF states their plans are to monitor every purchase made and eventually restrict what a person could spend their money on and when. This means proposing limitations on travel, dictating how much protein is consumed per week or even collecting carbon taxes directly from accounts without personal choices of the account holders. A CBDC account could be turned on and off at will, restricted based on that individual’s social behaviors, political leanings, religious belief systems and health choices (imposing mandatory experimental vaccines, for instance) and penalize those that don’t go along with centralized dictates.
Interest Rates and Inflation
High interest rates and inflation have a direct impact on those that seek commercial loans and how much funding is available. With an economic constriction, the availability of credit opportunities for business will lessen. As challenges mount, it will be more important to have a financial education. Financial literacy is gaining recognition as a crucial life skill. In 2024, there will be a growing emphasis on financial education, with schools, organizations and governments working to enhance people’s understanding of money management.
Redefining Retirement
The concept of retirement is evolving. More individuals are opting for phased retirement or exploring flexible work options. This trend will continue in 2024 as people seek purposeful post-retirement activities and income streams. People will also seek more control over their money in the coming year with the use of personal financial apps becoming integral for money management. In 2024, expect these apps to offer more sophisticated features, from AI-driven budgeting to customized investment advice, empowering users to take control of their finances.
It’s also vital to note that in the wake of the upcoming election, social security and Medicare reform will be at the bottom of the United States government’s political to-do list. Alternatively, on October 31 2023, the White House announced a Retirement Security Rule, which legally protects consumers seeking financial guidance.
Sustainable investing is also gaining momentum. Investors are seeking opportunities that align with their values, focusing on companies making a positive environmental and societal impact. In 2024, this trend will continue to grow as investors emphasize responsible investment choices.
Hitting the Debt Ceiling.
As the past year saw banks collapse, new debt ceiling highs and potential interruptions of government created anxiety and lack of confidence in political leaders. These actions will give rise to new bank systems, options and alternatives to banking. Decentralized Finance (defi) is also reshaping traditional banking and finance. In 2024, we can anticipate more DeFi projects and platforms emerging, offering decentralized lending, borrowing and trading options.
Economists Predict Soft Landing
According to J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, Looking into 2024, strategists now expect that while the U.S. economy is likely to slow, it should avoid recession. The lower likelihood of a painful economic crash should help with financial decision making going into the new year. Other economists are skeptical that the U.S. can maintain economic growth with interest rates so high. The Conference Board predicts slow GDP growth slowing means a “shallow recession” in the first half of the year. The nonprofit research group said wage growth is slowing, pandemic savings are declining, and U.S. household debt is spiking.
At the same time the labor market is resilient heading into the new year. The unemployment rate has risen to just 3.8%, and the economy has averaged more than 250,000 jobs created per month over the past three months. The Federal Open Market Committee projects the U.S. unemployment rate will average a healthy 4.1% in 2024, still well below its long-term average of around 5.7%. The firm said softening consumption, coupled with rising interest rates, will also weigh on U.S. business investment in early 2024.
With these points in mind, plan for the coming year knowing that the ability to be flexible, adaptable and agile will be of significant benefit.
Raj Tulshan is founder and managing partner at www.loanmantra.com. Reach him via Linked-in at https://www.linkedin.com/in/tulshan/.
