
By: Raj Tulshan, founder of Loanmantra.com
We’re a few months into the new year and the one constant we can count on is change, especially when a new administration takes America’s helm. So, what does this mean for the beverage industry, especially for business owners? And is the new administration having a positive financial impact on the beverage Industry?
The last Trump administration brought a shift of policies and once again we see lots of moving parts. The biggest focus the Trump Campaign impressed upon the public was putting America first. This means incentivizing expansion initiatives inside the United States. This should be good news for growth plans inside the U.S. But for those with international suppliers, distribution or expansion plans, the road could be trickier.
Here are some considerations on how the new administration could have a financial impact on beverage businesses:
Inflation
One of the top concerns prior to the election was inflation and this hasn’t changed. A recent study by Pew reports that 43% of Americans say the affordability of food and consumer goods will get worse rather than better in 2025, 37% believe prices will improve, while 19% say prices will stay about the same.
Our prediction on interest rates? They have already dipped slightly, but we anticipate that they will continue to drop in the future. As rates go down, value declines and the cost of obtaining capital is cheaper and easier to acquire. When this happens, it is a great time to buy real estate, spruce up, expand, upgrade equipment, buy additional trucks and secure business for plans.
Rising Labor Costs
For many food and beverage businesses, one of the costliest balance sheet items is labor and employee-related costs: hiring, training, and health care benefits for employees. The cost of health care is projected to rise more in 2025 than it has in a decade, prompting employers to reevaluate partnerships and look for alternative strategies.
At the same time, the Department of Labor (DOL) under Biden/Harris wrote the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) expanding overtime coverage to millions of Americans. This Act, which has been challenged several times, is currently being blocked by a Texas Federal Court as of Nov. 15, 2024.
I predict that the FLSA will be overturned, and individual states will regulate and enforce employment laws as they are already doing. Sweeping changes to the private business sector don’t typically work. They are too hard to define, implement, and regulate. Almost half of the states (23) have minimum wage increases in 2025 and six states: Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, New York, and Washington states are already raising overtime pay thresholds in 2025.
Tariffs
On March 4 President Trump imposed significant tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, marking a pivotal escalation in global trade tensions. These measures include a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods and an increase from 10% to 20% on Chinese imports. The administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing the ongoing fentanyl crisis and illegal immigration as national emergencies necessitating such economic actions.
For small businesses across the U.S., these tariffs could be particularly damaging. Many rely on affordable imported raw materials and goods to maintain competitive pricing. With increased costs, small businesses may be forced to pass these expenses onto consumers, reduce their workforce, or even shut down operations. Industries such as retail, manufacturing, and agriculture are especially vulnerable. Unlike large corporations with diversified supply chains, small businesses often lack the resources to absorb these additional costs, making it harder for them to compete in both domestic and international markets.
For the beverage industry, expert reviews are mixed. According to a recent global report, the U.S. beer market may steal market share from beer imports because most brands are domestically produced. In contrast, additional tariffs are expected to be imposed on steel and aluminum which both the food and beverage industry relies on for production and packaging leading to increased costs. In addition, tariffs levied against U.S. imports are expected in retaliation.
Tax Changes
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), enacted during the last Trump administration, lowered income taxes and gave small business a 20% tax deduction that were set to expire in 2025. President Trump is currently calling for an extension of this act through 2034 so stay tuned.
State of Currencies
The BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates nations, have joined together to create a common currency as an alternative to the U.S. Dollar. So, does this mean that the U.S. Dollar is dead? According to the Atlantic Council’s Geoeconomics Center the U.S. dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency dominating foreign reserve holdings, trade invoicing, and global transactions.
Cryptocurrency
When it comes to crypto, we look at Trump’s cabinet for insight. Take Small Business Administration Kelly Loeffler, a female entrepreneur and administrator of a crypto company, and Elon Musk, supporter of Dogecoin. Both are likely not huge proponents of government oversight and stiff regulations. This could translate into an explosion of crypto currency opportunities, while it has even been suggested that a form of an American digital dollar might be coming soon.
Although the early adoption of crypto occurred via alternative markets, research suggests that awareness and ownership rates have increased to a record 40% of Americans, of which 29% are women at the start of 2024. And over half hope to obtain more cryptocurrency in the future.
Federal Budget Cuts
As the leader of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk aims to cut $2 Trillion out of government spending, leaving no stone unturned. The main DOGE website at doge.gov posts receipts and updates while doge-tracker.com features a live savings tracker that is updated in real-time which reports savings $105 Billion so far.
A recent You/Gov CBS Poll found that 87% of Americans think federal agencies spending is wasteful. And while 54% of Americans think that Musk should have influence over spending and operations at U.S. government agencies, just over half (52%) expressed discomfort with DOGE’s access to data and authority to make cuts in the federal workforce.
We are just starting to see how drastic federal workforce cuts could impact the economy with a downturn in the stock market. According to a recent Forbes article, agencies that oversee the beer industry could see a negative financial impact if their funding is cut. Defunding the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, for example, which oversees the U.S. beer industry and the USDA Agriculture Research Service, could stifle growth and innovation, making it harder to obtain permits, approvals on new ingredients, requirements for labeling and slow brewing operations.
So, where does that leave the Beverage Business in terms of financial impact? The United States still enjoys one of the most stable economies in the world. Regardless of who is in political offices, if we keep calm and carry on while staying informed about the policy shifts that might affect inflation, we’ll be okay. One thing is certain: we’re in for an interesting ride!
Raj Tulshan is the founder and managing member of Loan Mantra, a one-stop FinTech business portal that democratizes the loan process by providing corporate sized services and access to entrepreneurs, small and medium sized businesses. Connect with Raj and Team Loan Mantra at 855-700-2583 (BLUE) or info@loanmantra.com.